Thursday, December 8, 2016

Red Hot Momentum

Big day yesterday, things were quiet and then at 1:00 pm the fireworks went off. The most interesting thing about yesterday was the fact that the SP500 (up huge), BONDS, GOLD, and Volatility were all up. A rare event. At certain times, breadth becomes so hot in the short term that it actually becomes a negative, we are there now. And to reiterate what I've been saying over the last couple of days; the longer your timeframe, the more irrelevant breadth, and sentiment measures are. Aggressively putting on new trades is a little tough.

When SP500 gains 1% or more and VIX gains 3% or more. HT @SJD10304


Here is another study, old but still a good one to know. From Quantifiable edges.


Below is my list for the day, I have an interest in these stocks if and only if they go through yesterday's high. IPO's have started to percolate, I will keep a very close eye on TPIC today.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Price Trumps Sentiment and Breadth

The market continues to march higher disregarding many breadth measures and sentiment measures that at times have put a short-term halt to previous rallies. Breadth and sentiment measures like everything else, matter certain times and certain times they don't. However, these measures make it a little harder to press on the gas in the short-term. What I do know is; that the longer your timeframe, the more irrelevant these measures are.

With that being said, below is my watchlist. I have an interest in these stocks/ETF's if and only if they go through yesterday's high. I will be keeping a very close eye on GLD and the Miners via JNUG and NUGT.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Lions Gate

Lions Gate Entertainment engages in motion picture production and distribution, television programming and syndication, home entertainment, branded channel platforms, interactive ventures and games, and location-based entertainment in Canada, the United States, and Internationally.

Lions Gate the stock has been trading sideways for 10-months after a prolonged decline in which sellers were in complete control. Over the last 10-months, the buyers and sellers have seemed to found equilibrium and the buyers are taking control as you can see in the chart below.


I have always been a big fan of long bases because typically a prolonged period of contraction leads to an extended period of expansion. Stan Weinstein, the author of Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, has the best definition for a stock's basing area.

The Basing Area: "After XYZ has been declining for several months, it eventually will lose downside momentum and start to trend sideways. What's actually taking place is that buyers and sellers are starting to move into equilibrium, whereas previously the sellers were far stronger, which is why the stock had plummeted. Volume will usually lessen--dry up--as a base forms. But often volume will start to expand late stage 1, even though prices remain little changed. This is an indication that dumping of the stock by disgruntled owners is no longer driving down the price. The buyers who are moving in to take the stock off their hands are not demanding any significant price concession."

What's also interesting about Lions Gate is the two huge insider buys by an insider who bought a total of 90k shares, a $2-million dollar investment. There's a million reason why you sell a stock but only one reason why you buy'em.

TRADE; Own the stock going through and holding $24, stop at $22.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Friday, December 2, 2016

You Chase You Lose

Tale of two markets, financials, and the energy names were the standouts yesterday while everything else took a beating.  The Semiconductors wiped out their entire post-election rally in 2-days. I can't say this enough; DON'T CHASE, this ain't the 90's.


The biotech sector has retraced their post-election ramp as well. Chances of seeing a retracement in the financials are high.


My best short-term barometer for swing trades is my rolling 5-day watchlist and that has been dead. A majority of the stocks are not even triggering (going through the previous day high).

Below are the stocks on my watchlist today, I have an interest in these stocks if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Miners In Focus

My rolling 5-day watchlist which is my best short-term market barometer for swing trading has been weak.

Oil and oil stocks were the talk of the town yesterday, and there's seem to be some follow through this morning.

We have a lot of stocks extended in the short-term, and they need a little rest to set-up properly. How extended you might be asking, take a look at this chart;

Nasdaq vs. stocks up 25% or more in the last month.

Like every indicator, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.

Below is my watchlist for the day, I have an interest in these stocks/ETF's if and only if they go through yesterday's high with a special focus on the miners.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Oil In Focus

The big news of the day so far is OPEC agreeing to cut 1.2m barrels per day. Crude enjoyed most of its gains before the news hit.


Individual stock momentum has waned a little bit, and my best short-term market barometer for the market is my 5-day rolling watchlist, and that has been weak. That can obviously change in a heart beat and just tells you that it ain't always sunshine and rainbows.

Below are the stocks on my watchlist that I have an interest in getting long if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


A majority of stocks move in spurts, after a period of consolidation they tend to breakout in the direction of the preceding trend, the spurt typically lasts 3-5 days, here's an example;


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Red Hot Momentum

Oil stocks are under pressure this morning, there's a big OPEC meeting tomorrow that will probably dictate the short-term movement of oil stocks.

Market continues to be extended by many measures, that at times means something other times it doesn't. The longer your time frame the more irrelevant these short-term measures are.  One interesting breadth measure that confirms that we are extended is Pradeep Bonde (Stockbee) breadth measure of how many stocks are up +50% or more in the last month.  That number is now at 35, typically above 20 signifies a hot market and this when momentum starts to wane.


With the above being said; the questions as trader that you ask yourself are;

  • Do you take the trades at regular size and disregard the breadth numbers? 
  • Do you reduce size to take into account the breadth numbers? 
  • Or do you not take any trades until we consolidate further? 
  • Fact is, we won't know what is the correct thing to do until after the fact.
Below are the stocks on my watchlist today that I have an interest in on the long side if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.