Thursday, July 27, 2017

Regrets, I Had A Few



Trading is full of regrets:


  • I regret not selling on the way up.
  • I regret selling too soon.
  • I regret taking such a small position
  • I regret taking such a big position.
  • I regret holding through earnings.
  • I regret not holding through earnings.


The list of regrets from trading could go on and on. And the fact is that all these regrets, for the most part, are due to the outcome of the trade which you have no control over.

Focus on what you can control, take full advantage of your strengths, minimize your weaknesses, know that there is no perfect system and that a lot that happens in trading could be chalked up as random.

On another note; I love the trading videos that over scrutinize and analyze losing trades like if they are not supposed to happen. Losses are unavoidable, tweaking your method every time you have a loss or series of losses is only going to drive crazy and make you chase something that does not exist.



STOCK OF THE WEEK RECAP

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Don't Chase Facebook

The market is slightly extended in the short-term and Facebook's positive earnings reaction is adding a little more fuel to the fire.  Facebook is up $12 dollars pre-market, this is a huge gap for a stock that has 2.3 billion shares in the float. Chances of Facebook digesting this gap up for a few weeks is a high probability event, don't chase it.

With the market so extended in the short-term, good risk-reward swing set-ups are drying up. There aren't many out there right now. Over the next 5-days or so I will be extremely selective with new buys.

We are in the middle of earnings season and it's going to heat up next week with over 1,400 stocks reporting, check the earnings date for your holdings and potential buys. Holding through earnings is a crap shoot.

STOCK OF THE WEEK RECAP


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.


Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bitcoin Is A Fad

Howard Marks's memo is out and it's a doozy, he covers EVERYTHING; FAANG, PASSIVE INVESTING, DIGITAL CURRENCIES,  and the high level of stupidity we are witnessing right now.

In my view, digital currencies are nothing but an unfounded fad (or perhaps even a pyramid scheme), based on a willingness to ascribe value to something that has little or none beyond what people will pay for it.  But this isn’t the first time.  The same description can be applied to the Tulip mania that peaked in 1637, the South Sea Bubble (1720) and the Internet Bubble (1999-2000).  

I absolutely am not saying stocks are too high, the FAANGs will falter, credit investing is risky, digital currencies are sure to end up worthless, or private equity commitments won’t pay off.  All I’m saying is that for all the things listed above to simultaneously be gaining in popularity and attracting so much capital, credulousness has to be high and risk aversion has to be low.  It’s not that these things are doomed, just that their returns may not fully justify their risk.  And, more importantly, that they show the temperature of today’s market to be elevated.  Not a nonsensical bubble – just high and therefore risky.--Howard Marks

Read The Whole Thing

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

The VIX Is Broken

Spikes In 1-month Highs Leads To A Breather-Zor



The VIX Is Broken--Steven Place

Second Half Outlook--Joe Fahmy

20-Day Highs On Fed Day Is Not Bullish--Quantifiable Edges

STOCK OF THE WEEK RECAP


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.