We have seen some decent deterioration underneath the surface, but to my surprise, I continue to find a lot of set ups. Whether or not these set-ups will work out is a different story, whether or not they will have any follow through is another story as well.
The major indices minus the NDX are trading below their respective 10,20, and 50-day moving averages. On the flip side, the liquid growth names FANG had a decent day yesterday suggesting that things are not that bad. Bottom line, the Bears are weak, and the bulls are weak.
BVX, FMSA, MOMO, AREX, WB, WLL, CTRL, ETSY, GUSH, MX, WPX, LN, NVRO, XLE, VMW, FSLR, COLL, AOSL, PXD, CHK, BRFS, TREE, NR, COTV, PAYC, COT, are the stocks of interest today if and only if they go through yesterday's high plus .10-cents, that should narrow the list.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Monday, October 17, 2016
Energy In Focus
I'm surprised by the amount of set-ups that I found tonight considering the choppiness of the last two weeks. I'm not sure what to make of it, but the market will let me know soon enough.
I'm going to play extra attention to the energy sector because like I mentioned yesterday on my weekly digest, XLE is one of only two S&P sectors that is above its 50-day moving average, plus the energy sector is also dominating the top 20 industry list this week. The XLE and XOP (oil&gas exploration) are both down five days in a row and testing their respective 50-day moving average. The 50-day may or may not act as support; my interest will be if and only if it can get through today's high.
APA, PXD, NOV, NR, WLL, WPX, DK, AR, are the individual energy names of interest on the long side if and only if they get through today's high. One can also make life easier by focusing on the actual ETF'S; XLE, XOP, ERX, GUSH.
TNA, BVX, AREX, HWAY, ETSY, CTRL, MX, SINA, DTLK, BZH, NVRO, LN, PAYC, VMW, are the rest of the stock of interest on the long side if and only if they get through yesterday's high.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
I'm going to play extra attention to the energy sector because like I mentioned yesterday on my weekly digest, XLE is one of only two S&P sectors that is above its 50-day moving average, plus the energy sector is also dominating the top 20 industry list this week. The XLE and XOP (oil&gas exploration) are both down five days in a row and testing their respective 50-day moving average. The 50-day may or may not act as support; my interest will be if and only if it can get through today's high.
APA, PXD, NOV, NR, WLL, WPX, DK, AR, are the individual energy names of interest on the long side if and only if they get through today's high. One can also make life easier by focusing on the actual ETF'S; XLE, XOP, ERX, GUSH.
TNA, BVX, AREX, HWAY, ETSY, CTRL, MX, SINA, DTLK, BZH, NVRO, LN, PAYC, VMW, are the rest of the stock of interest on the long side if and only if they get through yesterday's high.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
Sunday, October 16, 2016
Weekly Digest Below The Fifty
"The top stocks in the SP500 are equal in weight of the bottom 250." -Carter Worth
On 7/8/2016 the SP500 closed at 2,129.72 and on Friday it closed at 2,133.29. On 7/8/16 Eight of the nine S&P sectors were above their respective 50-day moving average, today only two are above.
XLK and XLE are the only two S&P sectors above their 50-day, if you believe in relative strength then those are the two sectors to focus on. The weakest of the bunch have been XLP, XLV, and XLU, these are the ones to look at if you believe in mean reversion.
Click to enlarge
On a quarterly basis, AGG and TIP are stronger than SPY and DIA. The SP500, DJ-30, QQQ, IWM, Nasdaq Composite, MDY, are all a shade below their respective 50-day moving average.
As you can see below, the top 20 industries based on relative strength of the last 65-days is being dominated by the energy sector.
Some big heavyweights will be reporting this week; AMD, BAC, IBM, INTC, JNJ, MCD, MSFT, NFLX.
Over the last two weeks individual swing set-ups have dried up and have stopped working, most individual stock set ups stopped working right around the same time that ACIA announced their secondary offering.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
Thursday, October 6, 2016
How Do You Know When It's The Right Time To Sell
If you bought a stock for a trade (technical reasons) and it goes against you and you find yourself doing any of the things below, then you've been had.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
- Visiting Yahoo Finance searching for news on the stock.
- Typing the $SYMBOL on the StockTwits or Twitter search bar.
- Reading the latest 10Q, 8k, etc.
- Checking seeking alpha.
- Adjusting the trendlines that were already drawn.
- Figuring out your cost basis if you buy additional shares.
- Zooming out to the weekly and monthly chart.
- Daydreaming about that one stock that you held after it when through your stop and made you whole a few weeks later, could it be Deja Vu all over again.
- You suddenly have an interest in value investing, and you convince yourself that the stock is too cheap to sell at a loss, but if it gets back to breakeven you'll get rid of it because then it will be fully valued.
- You decide to write a covered call so you can bring in some income while you wait for the street to finally realize the value that you see in the company.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
How To Make Money Like George Soros
We all have a habit of putting all these "legendary investors" on a pedestal without actually knowing the details of how they do things. George Soros is one trader who people view as a God in the business, someone to look up to and try to emulate. His fund generated 30% annual returns, he is also known for making $1-billion dollars on a single trade, a trade in which they were risking $10-billion. These things sound awesome, what we don't know is the details, one which is that some of Soros trades almost bankrupted the fund, and how by October 1987 the fund was up 60% year to date and a week later the fund was down 10% year to date.
"To add insult to injury, after two days of gains on Thursday, October 22, US indexes declined and Soros tried to book gains. Once again the Quantum Fund’s mammoth futures position worked against it. Noting that there was a large seller in the market, traders across Wall Street intensified their selling of US futures. Once again the Quantum Fund was stuck. By the end of the week, the Quantum Fund was sitting on losses of 10%, not 10% on the week, 10% year-to-date. In five trading days, the fund had been gone from being up 60% on the year to being down by 10%, a loss of $840 million."
You need to know all the details before you try to emulate someone else.
Read the whole story here.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
"To add insult to injury, after two days of gains on Thursday, October 22, US indexes declined and Soros tried to book gains. Once again the Quantum Fund’s mammoth futures position worked against it. Noting that there was a large seller in the market, traders across Wall Street intensified their selling of US futures. Once again the Quantum Fund was stuck. By the end of the week, the Quantum Fund was sitting on losses of 10%, not 10% on the week, 10% year-to-date. In five trading days, the fund had been gone from being up 60% on the year to being down by 10%, a loss of $840 million."
You need to know all the details before you try to emulate someone else.
Read the whole story here.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
Running In Place
The SP500 continues to run in place, underneath the surface, we still have a decent amount of good set-ups. Most of these set-up could use a boost from the market to get them going.
LABU, WB, BIIB, VMW, GOOGL, MSFT, LC, CONN, KPTI, TRUP, HMSY, SYNC, DTLK, are the stock on my list that I have an interest in owning only and only if they go through yesterday's high plus .10-cents.
My opinion and outlook are subject to change as new information comes in.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
LABU, WB, BIIB, VMW, GOOGL, MSFT, LC, CONN, KPTI, TRUP, HMSY, SYNC, DTLK, are the stock on my list that I have an interest in owning only and only if they go through yesterday's high plus .10-cents.
My opinion and outlook are subject to change as new information comes in.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
Saturday, October 1, 2016
How To Own All The Great Companies
- What exactly is a great company?
- When does a great company stop being a great company?
- Can you tell beforehand when a great company will cease to be one?
- Will you have the conviction to hold on to a "great company" through significant drawdowns?
For some, a good company is one which its stock goes up while you own it, and a horrible company when it goes down. Great companies come and go; each cycle has its fair share of Wall Street darlings that widowed a lot of portfolios years after. In the late 90's when I started in the business, we had Dell Computers, Cisco, Nortel, Lucent, AOL, Eastman Kodak, just to name a few. Before then we had Tandy, Polaroid, the Nifty Fifty.
Your definition of a great company might not always translate to a great stock. Your timing in owning that great company might be off. We can probably agree that AMAZON has been a great company for a long time, and it still is, its stock, on the other hand, has had its moments of greatness and its moments of being an absolute disaster.
Since inception AMAZON is up about 39,000%, unbelievable, however, at one point, it had a 90% drawdown, and throughout its lifetime it has had multiple 50% drawdowns. A dead person probably wouldn't be able to stomach these wild swings. And, more than likely-- at the very moment that you can no longer withstand the pain-- that will be the time that you convince yourself that the company is no longer a "great company," and you sell. What the stock does when you are holding on to it will more than likely be the determining factor in you putting it in the "great company" status.
Since inception AMAZON is up about 39,000%, unbelievable, however, at one point, it had a 90% drawdown, and throughout its lifetime it has had multiple 50% drawdowns. A dead person probably wouldn't be able to stomach these wild swings. And, more than likely-- at the very moment that you can no longer withstand the pain-- that will be the time that you convince yourself that the company is no longer a "great company," and you sell. What the stock does when you are holding on to it will more than likely be the determining factor in you putting it in the "great company" status.
Chart courtesy of @MichaelBatnick
Apple is another great example, a $100k dollar investment in 1980 would've been worth $457,974 by 1992, then $224k in 1993 and $100,486 by 1997. All along one could've argued that Apple was a great company all those years.
Chart by Charlie Bilello
Owning the indices; SP500, QQQ, IWM, allows you to participate in most if not all of the great companies that come public. You won't get the full participation on the way up, but you certainly won't live through gut wrenching drawdowns that are impossible to live through.
My opinion and outlook are subject to change as new information comes in.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.
The information in this blog post represents my opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
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