Regrets, I Had A Few

Trading is full of regrets:

• I regret not selling on the way up.
• I regret selling too soon.
• I regret taking such a small position
• I regret taking such a big position.
• I regret holding through earnings.
• I regret not holding through earnings.

The list of regrets from trading could go on and on. And the fact is that all these regrets, for the most part, are due to the outcome of the trade which you have no control over.

Focus on what you can control, take full advantage of your strengths, minimize your weaknesses, know that there is no perfect system and that a lot that happens in trading could be chalked up as random.

On another note; I love the trading videos that over scrutinize and analyze losing trades like if they are not supposed to happen. Losses are unavoidable, tweaking your method every time you have a loss or series of losses is only going to drive crazy and make you chase something that does not exist.

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Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

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We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

DISCLAIMER

Don't Chase Facebook

The market is slightly extended in the short-term and Facebook's positive earnings reaction is adding a little more fuel to the fire.  Facebook is up $12 dollars pre-market, this is a huge gap for a stock that has 2.3 billion shares in the float. Chances of Facebook digesting this gap up for a few weeks is a high probability event, don't chase it.

With the market so extended in the short-term, good risk-reward swing set-ups are drying up. There aren't many out there right now. Over the next 5-days or so I will be extremely selective with new buys.

We are in the middle of earnings season and it's going to heat up next week with over 1,400 stocks reporting, check the earnings date for your holdings and potential buys. Holding through earnings is a crap shoot.

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Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

See How I Translate My Tweets & Blogs Into Actual 3rd Party Verified Trades

Work With Me

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

DISCLAIMER

Bitcoin Is A Fad

Howard Marks's memo is out and it's a doozy, he covers EVERYTHING; FAANG, PASSIVE INVESTING, DIGITAL CURRENCIES,  and the high level of stupidity we are witnessing right now.

In my view, digital currencies are nothing but an unfounded fad (or perhaps even a pyramid scheme), based on a willingness to ascribe value to something that has little or none beyond what people will pay for it.  But this isn’t the first time.  The same description can be applied to the Tulip mania that peaked in 1637, the South Sea Bubble (1720) and the Internet Bubble (1999-2000).  

I absolutely am not saying stocks are too high, the FAANGs will falter, credit investing is risky, digital currencies are sure to end up worthless, or private equity commitments won’t pay off.  All I’m saying is that for all the things listed above to simultaneously be gaining in popularity and attracting so much capital, credulousness has to be high and risk aversion has to be low.  It’s not that these things are doomed, just that their returns may not fully justify their risk.  And, more importantly, that they show the temperature of today’s market to be elevated.  Not a nonsensical bubble – just high and therefore risky.--Howard Marks

Read The Whole Thing

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

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The VIX Is Broken

Spikes In 1-month Highs Leads To A Breather-Zor

The VIX Is Broken--Steven Place

Second Half Outlook--Joe Fahmy

20-Day Highs On Fed Day Is Not Bullish--Quantifiable Edges

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Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

See How I Translate My Tweets & Blogs Into Actual 3rd Party Verified Trades

Work With Me

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

DISCLAIMER

Going Back To The Well

I'm always intrigued by huge bases, typically a prolonged period of contraction leads to a prolonged period of expansion, hence the term; the bigger the base, the higher into space it goes. Buying stocks emerging from bases is by far my favorite set-up. $Z $PI and $WKHS are some of the ones we've highlighted in the last couple of months. $Z and $PI on 5/18/2017, Zillow has moved 24% since then and PI +50% since the POST. WorkHorse (WKHS) went up as much as 33% since this post on June 2nd, POST. They are not all winners, but it's a high probability set-up.

Stan Weinstein, the author of Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, describes the basing area as follow.

The Basing Area: "After XYZ has been declining for several months, it eventually will lose downside momentum and start to trend sideways. What's actually taking place is that buyers and sellers are starting to move into equilibrium, whereas previously the sellers were far stronger, which is why the stock had plummeted. Volume will usually lessen--dry up--as a base forms. But often volume will start to expand late stage 1, even though prices remain little changed. This is an indication that dumping of the stock by disgruntled owners is no longer driving down the price. The buyers who are moving in to take the stock off their hands are not demanding any significant price concession."

PDLI BioPharma $PDLI and Vical Incorporated $VICL are two biotech stocks that are just emerging from long bases. PDLI is emerging from a 7-month base and VICL from an 8-month base. If these stocks can manage to stay above the top of their respective ranges more gains are more than are likely to follow.

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Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

See How I Translate My Tweets & Blogs Into Actual 3rd Party Verified Trades

Work With Me

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

DISCLAIMER

We Broke The 50-day, So What

Yesterday the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both breached and closed below their respective 50-day moving average for the first time since December 2016.

The 50-day moving average is a widely followed moving average, whether this breach and close will mean anything, only time will tell. The outcome in the QQQ and Nasdaq composite in the near future will either strengthen or weaken the 50-day narrative.

What I think is more important, is something we mentioned on June 16th, here is the gist of it; The FANG stocks have been under pressure. They had a big sell-off that was followed by a small bounce, and then they sold off again. It's probably not a big deal, but the price action in these stocks before this week was very smooth and now they are loose and volatile. Typically, or at least in the past when the price action went from smooth sailing to loose and volatile it signified a trend change, we'll see. LINK

As you can see in the chart below, you can see the smoothness of the price action in the NASDAQ 100 until 6/9/2017. Since then the price action has been loose and volatile.

Click to ENLARGE

The Semiconductor index has been a leader in the market, and like the Nasdaq, the price action went from smooth to loose and volatile.

I would recommend some caution in the tech names until the price action tightens up.

SIGN UP HERE FOR OUR STOCK PICK OF THE WEEK.

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Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

See How I Translate My Tweets & Blogs Into Actual 3rd Party Verified Trades

Work With Me

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

DISCLAIMER

Another Amazon Derivative Play

On 4/4/17 Plug Power ($PLUG) announced that it reached an agreement with Amazon ($AMZN) to utilize Plug Power fuel cells and hydrogen technology in its fulfillment network (LINK).

Amazon was granted warrants to acquire up to 55,286,696 shares of Plug Power shares at $1.189. Under those terms, Amazon must spend at least $600 million over the life of its contract with Plug Power to take full advantage of that deal.Amazon and Plug Power will also begin further developing Plug's technology together, including expanding the applications for Plug Power's line of ProGen fuel cell engines.

Amazon has done similar deals over the last year with two air delivery companies ($AAWW, $ATSG) and T-shirt company ($KRNT).  $AAWW, $ASTG were big winners for us, we wrote about them here TWO AMAZON DERIVATIVE PLAYS.

I think today is a good day to mention the Plug Power/Amazon deal after Amazon announced that it will buy Whole Foods.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

See How I Translate My Tweets & Blogs Into Actual 3rd Party Verified Trades

Work With Me

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

DISCLAIMER