Trading Is Random

Yesterday was a perfect example why I rather let the market narrow down my watch-list rather than do it discretionally.  Cypress Semiconductor (CY) was on my list, but I decided not to put the order in because I felt that the float was too large and that the semiconductor sector was extended.  Mid-day yesterday a buyout rumor hit the wires and CY at one point was up 10%.  There's a lot of randomness in trading, and while we might have a feeling of which stock has the best chance of being the biggest winner for the week, we never really know.  Long term, the biggest winners share certain characteristics that make a difference, but in the short-term none of that matters.

All my buy orders had an exact buy time which was 10:30 am, out of 23 names only three triggered after that time, 1 (DLTH) triggered before 10:30 am.

My list today is a lot longer than I would like it to be, the recent 6-week consolidation is the reason why I have so many names. Many stocks like the market have been moving sideways marking time.

I have an interest in the stocks below if and only if they go through yesterday's high plus .10-cents.  I consider these swing long ideas with a shelf life after they trigger of 1-10 days.

ATSG, XPO, NSM, CRUS, SNCR, MELI, TWOU, OSK, ROST, MIDD, LOCO, TWTR, VG, CYBR, MGA, SON, AR, ELLI, MGT, ERII, GV, ININ, CPA, MPET, CGNX, SFLY, TWLO, YNDX, CHGG, LC, ICON.

If I wanted to narrow down the list and not allow the market to do it for me, then I would prioritize the list based on their float, the smaller the float the higher in the list it goes.

My opinion and outlook are subject to change as new information comes in.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

These Stocks Are Ready To Be Squeezed

The post BREXIT gains in the SP500 have been consolidated in a very bullish manner by most counts, while the gains in the SP500 have been muted some individual stocks have done very well. To put things in perspective, according to Bloomberg the SP500 has traded in a range of 1.5%, the smallest range since 1965.

In this light volume environment, there are a few stocks that with low floats and high short interest that look ripe for short squeezes, the type of squeezes that happen when individual stocks are running red hot.

DLTH, TWOU, CHGG, ININ, DV, CGNX, BMO (large float) are a few of the stocks that are trading near 3-month highs with small floats and high short interest ratios.  You can get the details about these stocks here.

I have an interest in going long the stocks above if and only if they go through yesterday's high plus .10 cents.

WWW, MELI, ROST, CASY, SON, SKYW, RSYS, CY, LC, YRCW, EXAR, NSAM, YNDX, SFLY, MGT, are also of interest for swing trades. There are many different ways to narrow down this list, you can do it by focusing on the ones that have low floats, high ATR'S, low price, high price, etc.  Or you can allow the market to get you in or keep you out by just focusing on the one's that break the previous day high by at least .10 cents.

My opinion and outlook are subject to change as new information comes in.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

Range Broken, Now What

The market finally showed a little volatility today, the SP500 broke its 2-week range to the downside. I believe that breadth gave us a heads up that the recent range was going to resolve itself to the downside; 1-month and 3-month lows were expanding, the advance-decline was also showing less participation, you can see the charts here--> Jul. 28 at 08:24 PM and here Jul. 28 at 08:16 PM.

Here is a possible roadmap for the SP500, H/T AlphaTrends

Underneath the surface, we still have some decent swing ideas that if the market cooperates they should do well.  $MTW $ NTES $HLX $WBMD $AYI $YY $SGYP $MSM $CVGW are some of the stocks of interest on the long side if they are able to break through today's high.

My opinion and outlook are subject to change as new information comes in.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

See How I Translate My Tweets & Blogs Into Actual 3rd Party Verified Trades

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

Is It Time To Checkout ETSY

ETSY operates a marketplace to make, sell, and buy goods online.  The stock is at a level that could potentially make a decent move in the short term, I explain in detail in the video below.

My opinion and outlook are subject to change as new information comes in.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

See How I Translate My Tweets & Blogs Into Actual 3rd Party Verified Trades

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

This Stock Belongs On Your Radar

TravelCenters ($TA) operates 255 rest stops, mostly located along the nation's interstate highway system, that include fuel stations, convenience stores, truck-repair services, and restaurants. On 6/15/2016 TravelCenters stock was up as much as 37% and closed the day up 24% on the news that TravelCenters rejected a $14-per-share bid from private equity firm Golden Gate Capital.

Truck-stop operator TravelCenters of America LLC rejected a $14-per-share

December bid from Golden Gate Capital, but the private-equity firm remains interested in a deal, according to people familiar with the matter.

Golden Gate hasn’t been in contact with the company since the offer was rejected, and the San Francisco firm isn’t interested in making a hostile bid, some of the people said.--WSJ

With the stock trading a shade under $8-per-share, a $14 bid is huge premium. The rejection of this bid more than likely put and will put a lot of pressure on TravelCenter's management team to make something happen to get the stock higher and justify a $14 bid rejection.  At the same time, the bid probably put TravelCenter's on the radar of other firms that perhaps had no idea who they were or that there might be some hidden value worth doing some due diligence on.

SOURCE;WSJ

My opinion and outlook are subject to change as new information comes in.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

See How I Translate My Tweets & Blogs Into Actual 3rd Party Verified Trades

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

5 Things You Should Know About The Brexit Aftermath

Global markets are selling off due to Brits decision to leave the EU.

The market is reacting today like if this is a big deal, short-term everything is.  Long-term you can add this to one of the many uncertainties the market has shrugged off over time.

1. In the future, today's selloff will be an irrelevant data point in the SP500 chart just like 1987.

2. The longer your timeframe in the market the more irrelevant today's Brexit is.  The two charts below tell you the whole story.  The odds of SP500 being up in 5 years is 80%, the higher the "drop, the higher the odds of the SP500 being up. (I'm specifically talking about the SP500, not individual common stocks).

3. Pullbacks are buying opportunities in the SP500 for those who have time on their side, the bigger the correction, the better.

4. BREXIT will probably have little effect on your daily, weekly, monthly, usage of $AMZN and $FB.

5.  Live to fight another day, be patient with your buys and always consistent with your long-term plan. 

My opinion and outlook are subject to change as new information comes in.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

See How I Translate My Tweets & Blogs Into Actual 3rd Party Verified Trades

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

Source; Schaeffer Research, Morgan Housel, JP Morgan.

Two Amazon Derivative Plays That Are Ready To Fly

Atlas Air Worldwide ($AAWW) and Air Transport Services ($ATSG), are two stocks worth keeping an eye on for the next few quarters because of their recent partnership with Amazon.

On 3/8/2016 Air Transport Services signed this deal with Amazon “ Aircraft lessor Air Transport Services Group Inc said it would lease 20 Boeing 767 freighter planes to Amazon.com Inc as the online retailer looks to operate its own air cargo network.As part of the deal, Amazon also has the right to buy up to 19.9 percent of ATSG’s stock over five years at $9.73 per share.” 

On that news, ATSG was up as much as 24% the next day and closed up 16% on the news. Since then the stocks has digested the gains by trading sideways.

On 5/4/2016 Atlas Air Worldwide signed a similar deal; “Amazon (AMZN) and Atlas Air Worldwide (AAWW) have inked a long-term air cargo services deal that gives the e-commerce titan the rights to acquire up to a total of 30% equity of the outsourced aircraft provider as Amazon fortifies its delivery capabilities.

The deals, which involve 20 B767-300 converted freighters, go into effect in the latter half of the year and will “ramp up to full service through 2018,” said Atlas Air. These include 10-year dry leases by its Titan Aviation leasing unit and 7-year crew, maintenance and insurance operations agreements.

Under the terms of the agreement, Amazon can acquire up to 20% of Atlas Air’s common shares at 37.50 a share over the course of five years, and up to another 10%  at the same price over a period of seven years.”

Atlas Air Worldwide was up as much as 50% the next day on the Amazon news and closed up 26%.  Since then the stock has settled down, and volatility has contracted.

There’s no doubt that these two stocks will be huge benefactors from Amazon’s dominance in the retail world for many quarters to come.

Source; Reuters, IBD

My opinion and outlook are subject to change as new information comes in.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

See How I Translate My Tweets & Blogs Into Actual 3rd Party Verified Trades

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.