Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Oil In Focus

The big news of the day so far is OPEC agreeing to cut 1.2m barrels per day. Crude enjoyed most of its gains before the news hit.


Individual stock momentum has waned a little bit, and my best short-term market barometer for the market is my 5-day rolling watchlist, and that has been weak. That can obviously change in a heart beat and just tells you that it ain't always sunshine and rainbows.

Below are the stocks on my watchlist that I have an interest in getting long if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


A majority of stocks move in spurts, after a period of consolidation they tend to breakout in the direction of the preceding trend, the spurt typically lasts 3-5 days, here's an example;


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Red Hot Momentum

Oil stocks are under pressure this morning, there's a big OPEC meeting tomorrow that will probably dictate the short-term movement of oil stocks.

Market continues to be extended by many measures, that at times means something other times it doesn't. The longer your time frame the more irrelevant these short-term measures are.  One interesting breadth measure that confirms that we are extended is Pradeep Bonde (Stockbee) breadth measure of how many stocks are up +50% or more in the last month.  That number is now at 35, typically above 20 signifies a hot market and this when momentum starts to wane.


With the above being said; the questions as trader that you ask yourself are;

  • Do you take the trades at regular size and disregard the breadth numbers? 
  • Do you reduce size to take into account the breadth numbers? 
  • Or do you not take any trades until we consolidate further? 
  • Fact is, we won't know what is the correct thing to do until after the fact.
Below are the stocks on my watchlist today that I have an interest in on the long side if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Monday, November 28, 2016

A Handful Of Names To Watch



Like I said in the previous post, by many measures the market is short-term extended, sideways to down action would be healthy and there's a limited amount of decent risk reward entries.

With that being said, OLED, LC, FELP, PI, YRD, EDIT, are the names on my long only watch-list today. I have an interest in these names if and only if they go through their previous day high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Scarcity

As far as the way I see things we have a very limited amount of decent risk reward entries; this is no surprise given the straight up move we have witnessed since the election. Sideways action would do wonders to a lot of charts and set them up better for a second move higher. Holding on to your current holdings and or waiting for some corrective price action via price or time is probably your best bet as a swing trader.

With that being said, below you can have the Top 20 Sectors based on 3-month momentum. This is always good to know since a bulk of a stock's move is correlated to its sector/industry move.


Most of the individual stocks within the above sectors are extended in the short-term.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Keeping Track Of Potential Big Movers

LGF, HAWK, BERY, EGOV, XON are stocks that are trying to emerge from bases. I'm always intrigued by bases because typically a prolonged period of contraction leads to an extended period of expansion. We have covered bases extensively here (SEE BELOW) on the blog, and they are one if not my favorite set-up.

Stan Weinstein, the author of Secrets For Profiting In Bull and Bear Markets, has a great definition the "basing area," specifically the one's that are formed after several down months.

The Basing Area: "After XYZ has been declining for several months, it eventually will lose downside momentum and start to trend sideways. What's actually taking place is that buyers and sellers are starting to move into equilibrium, whereas previously the sellers were far stronger, which is why the stock had plummeted. Volume will usually lessen--dry up--as a base forms. But often volume will start to expand late stage 1, even though prices remain little changed. This is an indication that dumping of the stock by disgruntled owners is no longer driving down the price. The buyers who are moving in to take the stock off their hands are not demanding any significant price concession."






Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Friday, November 18, 2016

What A Small Pullback Would Do

The market continues to grind higher, low-risk are scarce and a small pullback would do wonders to many charts.

CTRV, OI, TA, QCOM, GILD, are the names on my long only watchlist that are of interest if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Thursday, November 17, 2016

All The Way Up

The indices have been grinding higher over the last two weeks, the stocks that took off initially (bio's, small caps, financials) have slowed down a little over the last two days allowing the post-election losers to bounce a little, specifically FANG.

CTRV, AKAM, OI, FMSA, PYPL, TWTR, MPC, YELP , CYOU, QCOM, are the names on my long watchlist today. These stocks are actionable to me if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.