Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Mining For Dollars



The mining sector has been dead money for a long time except for a few 1-5 day rallies.  However some mining stocks specifically Barrick Gold $ABX might be turning the corner.  Barrick Gold right now is in the process of coming out of a 7 month trading range after being under constant distribution for months.

I'm always intrigued by multi-month bases of stocks near their 52 week lows.  Normally a prolong period of contraction leads to a prolong period of expansion.  ABX has traded roughly between $10.30 and $13.30 for 7 months.  What happens in the base is that the buyers and sellers find equilibrium, the sellers for the most part are done selling and or the buyers are taking in all the supply.  These new stockholders obviously believe that greener pastures await the stock.  More importantly, what you see right before the stock exits its base to the upside is a series of higher lows. Since March that's exactly what has been happening with Barrick Gold, this tells you that the buyers are getting antsy and no longer want to wait for the stock to trade at the bottom of its range.  And one can also assume that a lot of the negatives that has been surrounding the stock is already priced in, we can see that today with the stocks reaction to its earnings release.



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